“THERE ARE TIMES, PERHAPS ONCE EVERY THIRTY YEARS, WHEN THERE IS A SEA CHANGE IN POLITICS. IT THEN DOES NOT MATTER WHAT YOU SAY OR WHAT YOU DO. THERE IS A SHIFT IN WHAT THE PUBLIC WANTS AND WHAT IT APPROVES OF.”

JAMES CALLAGHAN PM 1976-79

During the 1979 election campaign, James Callaghan confided in his close aide Bernard Donoghue, recognising a profound shift in the political landscape that favoured Margaret Thatcher. Fast forward 45 years, and the political stage is set for a similar transformation, this time in favour of Keir Starmer. Many believe that this summer’s General Election will be to the Conservatives what 1979 was to Labour. It’s hard to find a Conservative activist who hasn’t resigned themselves to the likelihood of electoral defeat and a potential five-year Labour government, if not longer. With this impending change, is there anything the incumbent Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, can do to avoid the seemingly inevitable course?

Since their December 2019 landslide, the Conservatives have faced a global pandemic, rising inflation, high energy prices, a cost-of-living crisis and various political scandals. Despite Sunak’s relative success in reducing inflation and modest tax cuts, this has had very little breakthrough with the electorate. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s reformed Labour Party has been gaining momentum, capitalising on the public’s desire for change after a tumultuous few years.

Recent opinion polling has suggested that the Conservatives are losing every age group except the over-65s, which may explain why the Chancellor has committed to maintaining the pension triple lock in the party’s next manifesto, despite speculation it could be dropped. The party has also taken a notably anti-development stance during a series of recent by-elections, hoping to shore up its core voters, who are more likely to be homeowners. However, this is unlikely to win over young professionals, many of whom see homeownership as increasingly out of reach, especially in the capital. While the ‘batten-down-the-hatches’ strategy may work in the short term, or at least provide for damage limitation, the party will need to articulate a vision that can appeal on a cross-generational basis if it is to have any chance of recovery in the months and years to come.

The former Chancellor, George Osborne, has gone as far as to say the party’s housing strategy is a ‘very long political suicide note’ and that ‘we haven’t been building enough homes.’ For context from 2010 to 2016, there were approximately 875,000 new homes built compared to approximately 1.4 million up until March 2023. Osborne’s comments suggest that despite the increase in house building, it remains the case that not enough is being done to address Britain’s housing crisis.

If the Conservatives are to learn anything from their recent local election results, I would suggest they look to Ben Houchen and Andy Street, who have long championed investment and regeneration in their areas. Houchen was returned for a third consecutive term with 53.6% of the vote compared to Labour’s 41.3%. Most notably, he was the only Conservative candidate to win in the eleven metro mayoral contests held this year, Street, meanwhile, lost out by just 1,508 votes.

In contrast, Labour has taken a noticeably pro-housing stance, talking up homeownership, which not so long ago was the Conservatives’ natural territory.

What do we know so far?

• Labour will reinstate mandatory housing targets which were dropped by Michael Gove in late 2022 following backbench pressure.
• The party has committed to building 1.5 million new homes within the first five years of a Labour government, delivering the biggest boost of affordable housing in a generation, with social and council housing at the heart of Labour’s plan. They have also committed to creating new towns and ensuring first dibs on new builds for first-time buyers.
• Labour will not build on genuine green spaces and will prioritise brownfield land first. It has been suggested that the party would release some green belt that no longer fits this description, such as poor-quality land, car parks and wastelands.

As we approach polling day on the 4^th July, a tired Conservative Party finds itself struggling to keep up with a rejuvenated Labour Party, energised with fresh ideas under Keir Starmer. One of the longstanding challenges the industry has faced is the politicisation of green belt land, with political parties of all persuasions vying to present themselves as the “only party that will protect the green belt.” This stance has often hindered sustainable development on land that no longer positively contributes to the natural environment as it did following the 1947 Town and Country Planning Act.

Keir Starmer, however, appears to be taking a different approach, coining the phrase “grey belt” for land that could be repurposed for new housing. This includes areas that no longer serve their original purpose, like poor-quality land, car parks, and wastelands. Rishi Sunak now faces an uphill battle to present innovative solutions to address Britain’s growing housing crisis.

The forthcoming General Election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in British politics, reminiscent of May 1979 when Mrs Thatcher was swept to power. While Harold Wilson famously said, “A week is a long time in politics,” it is clear that a Herculean effort will be required from the Conservatives if they are to reconnect with an electorate hungry for change.