The Leader of the Opposition is often seen as one of the hardest job in British politics. Balancing the need to challenge the government effectively while keeping one’s own party united is a complex task. As the Conservative Party, now in opposition, concludes another leadership contest, the two candidates vying for the top job – Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick – each present different visions for how to revive the party’s fortunes.
Whoever takes on the mantle of leadership will inherit a party at its lowest ebb in history. However, there are signs of opportunity. Labour’s decision to cut the Winter Fuel Allowance has sparked significant controversy, creating a platform for the new leader to capitalise on public discontent.
While the Conservatives have managed to secure a string of council by-election wins in recent months, these victories should not be seen as definitive evidence of a resurgence. The new leader, whether it be Badenoch or Jenrick, will face an uphill struggle to regain broader national appeal, and the challenges are particularly pronounced in addressing issues that hit close to home, such as housing and NIMBYism.
The rise of NIMBYism
The issue of NIMBYism (“Not in My Back Yard”) emerged as a significant challenge during the Conservatives’ time in government, particularly following the loss of the Chesham and Amersham by-election. This loss helped stifle much-needed planning reforms that could address the housing shortage, particularly in areas where young people are being priced out of homeownership.
The leadership contenders, Badenoch and Jenrick, have presented two different responses to this issue. Jenrick has put housing at the heart of his platform, determined to tackle the crisis head-on, looking to the Canadian Conservatives for inspiration with their pro-housing agenda, which, if recent opinion polls are to be believed, is helping to win back younger voters. Badenoch, while not dismissing the need for more housing, is focused on a broader ideological reset. Her Renewal 2030 platform focuses on a return to first principles and resetting the party’s direction, emphasising traditional Conservative values such as reducing government intervention and promoting personal responsibility. While Jenrick offers a concrete policy offering, Badenoch believes that without a clear ideological foundation, policy discussions risk being aimless.
Divisions over key issues?
The next leader will also need to navigate internal divisions, particularly regarding the UK’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While Badenoch advocates for reform and doesn’t see leaving the ECHR as a silver bullet, Jenrick has made his position clear: “I’m for leave,” a marked contrast to some of his more moderate views in recent years. Managing these internal divisions will be key for the new leader to unite the party and present a credible alternative to Labour.
Opportunities amid challenges
Keir Starmer’s approval rating has been plummeting, reflecting growing dissatisfaction among the public. This could present an opportunity for the Conservatives to deprive Labour of a second term or, at the very least, significantly reduce their majority — that said, four and a half years is a long time in British politics. Additionally, the rise of Reform UK on the right and the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats on the left pose significant challenges that could redefine the party’s future following the recent general election.
A Personal Perspective: The View from the Doorstep
I was recently in Greenwich campaigning for Conservative candidate Charlie Davis ahead of the Eltham Town and Avery Hill by-election. The voters there were engaged and showed genuine support for Charlie. There was a prevailing sense that a “punishment beating” was required — that the Conservatives need a period out of government to regroup and refocus. Despite being out of office for barely four months, the party triumphed with a majority of over 500 votes. Similarly, in September, the Conservatives won back a seat on Westminster City Council from Labour, with an 8.5% increase in their vote share from 2022. Notably, both candidates had stood as prospective MPs in their respective areas during the recent general election, suggesting that building name recognition may be a key strategy for success.
However, recent results still reveal challenges for the Conservatives. Just last week, the Liberal Democrats gained a previously safe Conservative seat on Surrey Heath Borough Council, with the Conservative vote share plummeting by 27%. This follows the Liberal Democrats’ victory in the area’s parliamentary seat in July, which saw a 20.9% swing in their favour — signs that the party is consolidating its position locally. A similar story unfolded in Ealing this month, where the Liberal Democrats won a seat on Ealing Council in the Hanger Hill by-election. The ward, previously represented by two Conservative councillors and one Liberal Democrat, now leans more solidly towards the Liberal Democrats. While the Conservatives are enjoying a short-term boost from Labour’s rocky start in office (at the time of writing, the party has gained 16 council seats since the general election), they face a tough battle in defending their seats against the resurgent Liberal Democrats as we head into the 2025 local elections.
The Tory leadership election has shaped up to be an interesting battle between a return to first principles and the desire for radical change. Whoever wins tomorrow will not only have the immense responsibility of uniting a divided party but also of regaining trust in the eyes of the public.