AN Early VIEW

It’s 14-months away, but we already have a keen eye on the London-wide borough elections in May 2026 and by-elections offer a snapshot of the mood amongst the local electorate. In Westminster, the Conservative Party is setting the scene to try and regain control from Labour.

Since May 2022 the group has pulled off a hat-trick of by-election wins, most notably West End last September where Councillor Tim Barnes reclaimed the seat following a rocky start for the new Labour government and a campaign dominated by local issues, including the management of rental e-bikes and opposition to the Mayor of London’s plans to pedestrianise Oxford Street – which the local Conservatives are now poised to launch a legal challenge against.

Last week the Conservatives won the vacant seat at the Vincent Square by-election and retook a split ward which had been solidly blue prior to May 2022, a change that coincided with the end to 58 years of Conservative control over Westminster City Council. Newly elected Conservative councillor, Martin Hayes, a publican and small businessman secured the seat and further narrowing the gap between the two parties. Labour now has 29 councillors ahead of the Conservatives on 25, giving Labour a majority of just four seats compared to eight in 2022.

The Conservatives by-election victories since May 2022 in Abbey Road ward (after the resignation of Conservative councillor Amanda Langford), in West End ward (where Labour’s Jessica Toale stood down to take up a seat in Parliament) and in Vincent Square ward (following the passing of Labour’s Gillian Arrindell) have narrowed the gap.

Historical context
The political landscape of Westminster has seen significant shifts in recent years. The Conservatives maintained control of the council for decades until 2022, when Labour achieved an historic victory and took control for the first time in the Council’s history. This shift was part of a broader trend of Labour gains in London during an election cycle which was arguably influenced by national issues such as ‘partygate’.

Several factors will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2026 elections, including:

National political landscape
As much as political activists would like to get away from it, the reality is national politics will still be at the forefront of voters’ minds each time they go to the ballot box. As a former council candidate myself, I lost count of how many residents told me “I hear you but…” followed by some perfectly understandable national grievance. Although Westminster Labour Group would prefer otherwise, the performance of Keir Starmer’s government will inevitably influence voter sentiment. Recent decisions, such as cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance, increases in employee National Insurance contributions, an economy which seems to be doing anything but growing as well as the decision to cut the international aid budget to bolster defence spending, have led to internal party disagreements and public criticism.

Emergence of third parties
Whilst Labour has had a shaky start to their time in government, the Conservatives will also be concerned about the impact of Reform UK, who have been leading in some recent national opinion polls. That said, despite some recent local by-election wins, they have only won 12 out of 208 seats contested since the 2024 General Election. Locally, the Conservatives will have been relieved to see off the Reform threat who emerged a distant third, ahead of both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. However, this could have potential wider implications in close contests as they continue to attract attention.

Turnout
Historically, by-elections experience low voter turnout. For instance, the West End by-election saw a turnout of just 16.77%. However, remarkably the recent Vincent Square by-election saw a turnout of almost 30%. Local intelligence suggests that Labour spent a large part of the campaign focused on a polling district that is believed to be more ‘Labour friendly’ this core vote strategy may work when your opponents are on the down, less so when you are on the brunt of voter’s frustrations.

Mobilising voters will be crucial for both major parties in the upcoming election. The challenge for the Conservatives is being able to draw on significant support from neighbouring Conservative activists and affiliated groups seen in both the Vincent Square and West End by-election campaigns. With the May 2026, election approaching, these resources will likely be stretched more thinly as focus shifts across other key areas across the capital. However, given the importance of Westminster to the national political landscape, it is expected that CCHQ (Conservative Campaign Headquarters) will be investing substantial resources into Westminster as we get closer to May 2026.

Performance running the Council
Labour’s performance as a council has been mixed. While boroughs like Ealing and Brent have exceeded their housing targets, Westminster and Wandsworth have faced criticism for not doing enough to deliver new homes. Westminster, for instance, approved only 39 homes last year, less than 1% of its target, though it recently earned praise for its improved social housing services, receiving the highest possible grade from the Regulator for Social Housing and becoming the first London borough to do so in the process.

The council is also at odds with the Mayor of London’s proposals to pedestrianise Oxford Street, with Labour councillors emphasising the need to balance resident and business concerns with economic growth, acknowledging the street’s importance to both locals and visitors.

Likely Conservative targets

  • West End ward: In September 2024, the Conservative Group successfully recaptured a seat in this ward with an 8.5% increase in their vote. This ward, which has historically elected Conservative councillors, now presents an opportunity for the party to build on their recent success and reclaim the two other seats next May.
  • Hyde Park ward: In Hyde Park, a ward where the Conservatives lost all three seats to Labour in May 2022, the race was remarkably close. The Conservative candidate with the highest vote count was just 46 votes behind the Labour candidate with the most votes, highlighting the competitive nature of this ward. This narrow margin makes it a prime target for Conservative gains in the upcoming election.

So can the Conservatives do it?
The Conservative Group’s recent by-election victories indicate a potential shift in Westminster’s political landscape. However, reclaiming full control in the 2026 elections will require addressing both local and national issues effectively and mitigating the impact of emerging parties such as Reform UK, a challenge they successfully saw off at the recent Vincent Square by-election. Labour’s response to national domestic issues will also impact the Conservatives’ chances of regaining control.

Final thoughts and recommendations

  • Westminster City Council remained under Conservative control from its creation in 1964 until 2022. However, recent by-election victories suggest that the Conservatives could retake control of the Council in May 2026.
  • To regain control, the Conservatives need to win just four additional seats to have an outright majority.
  • In terms of development proposals coming forward in the next year, we always facilitate cross-party engagement in split or closely neighbouring wards, but nothing can be assumed, and potential applicants should continue to heed the Labour Groups strong positions on affordable housing and sustainability.
  • Our team has extensive experience in Westminster and enjoys strong, cross-party relationships and is ready to advise on emerging schemes or potential political change.