Momentum is a powerful thing in politics and Reform UK’s conference last Friday was full of it.

Walking into the hall for the first time, I was struck by the energy and conviction in the room. It reminded me of Conservative Party Conferences in David Cameron’s opposition days, that same sense of a movement on the rise. But the difference here was the conviction that Reform is not waiting quietly in the wings; this is a party determined to challenge for government.

I had gone in expecting Reform to position itself as simply further to the right than the Conservatives. That is how the party is mostly portrayed in the press and by Labour. But it was clear that members see things very differently. Any comparison with the Conservatives is firmly rejected and I was also struck by just how unpopular the Conservatives are among the Reform membership. The identity they want to project is something new and distinct. I am not sure Andrea Jenkyns’s singing was the best remedy for this. In fact, high-profile sign-ups such as Nadine Dorries are not always welcomed; they risk blurring Reform’s distinctiveness and making it look like a Conservative spin-off.

Nigel Farage seemed acutely aware of this. His speech hammered home the importance of unity and discipline: don’t fight each other in public, keep disagreements private and focus on the bigger prize. This will be a real challenge for Reform. Councils now under its control already contain defectors from both Labour and Conservative ranks and unsurprisingly they don’t always agree. What does unite them is a common frustration with what they see as wasteful local authority spending, agency staff costs, for example.

Message discipline was also notable. Everyone I spoke to repeated the same simple message: small government, low taxation, stop immigration. Beyond that, three other themes came through.

First, a “Britain First” agenda – more domestic manufacturing, stronger local high streets powered by independents and SMEs and less reliance on multinationals. Foreign investment was welcomed, but only within limits.

Secondly, on housing, there was consensus that planning processes are too slow and inflexible. But one striking comment summed up a harder edge: “we do not have a housing crisis, only a migrant crisis.”

Lastly, on net zero, climate change and sustainability, the sentiment here was that this and previous governments have got their priorities all wrong. Policies in these areas stifle growth, therefore they should be loosened or discarded. Ed Miliband’s popularity among members was notably low. This area seems to be the one where Reform’s left and right safely find common ground.

The immediate focus is the May 2026 elections. The ambition is bold: win Wales, make inroads in Scotland and gain traction across England, particularly in combined authority mayoralties. In London, Alex Wilson, their sole GLA member, is spearheading the campaign, with targets in Havering, Bromley, Bexley and some seats in Barking & Dagenham. Defections in central London are adding weight to the effort – Mark Justin in Nine Elms and Laila Cunningham in Bayswater, who is now Reform’s frontrunner mayoral candidate. East Anglia also feels ripe for growth, with Reform winning two parliamentary seats in Essex. Labour deputy leadership contenders may come from different wings of the party, but they largely agree on one thing: the threat from Reform UK is real.

Losing Wales, where Labour has led the government in some form since the creation of the Welsh Assembly (now the Senedd), would be a historic political shift. Such a defeat could seriously undermine Keir Starmer’s leadership and raise the prospect of an early general election. Reform is certainly preparing for that possibility, with Nigel Farage publicly urging the party to be ready for a snap vote as early as 2027.

Policy takes a back seat for now. With just four MPs, there is little appetite for lengthy manifestos. The prevailing view is that the UK is heading into a deeper economic downturn and that any incoming government will face crisis management first and policy detail later.

Reform’s growth has been dramatic. From a standing start to 677 council seats in May, they now have around 880 councillors nationwide, running 10 councils and two mayoralties. The pace has raised questions about competency, but the scale of expansion is remarkable. Centrally, they are now based in Millbank with a small, capable team, though stretched given the speed of change.

At Cascade, we are already advising in Derbyshire and Kent where Reform is in control, and we are engaging with the party centrally to understand its positioning with business and on key policy areas. For now, though, their priority is unambiguous: campaigning and electing more representatives.

For many, Brexit was described as a shot across the bows of the political establishment. Other European countries have already seen their populist waves. From what I witnessed last Friday, Reform’s message is that in the UK, that wave has now arrived.